The gem exchange rate is based entirely on the cumulative amount of gems bought and sold on the exchange. The more out of balance it is, the higher the rate gets in an attempt to lure players into selling gems to it, hopefully cash bought gems because the discount between the two rates is quite high. As such it has very little to do with traditional inflation.
The primary purpose of the Gold for Gems side of the exchange is to provide the gold used to pay player who are doing the opposite, selling Gems for guild wars 2 gold. It’s also a gold sink and sequester mechanism to decrease the amount of gold circulating in the game.
It is and never was a way for a player to avoid buying Gems with cash to get every item they desire out of the game’s cash shop. I know that is difficult to grasp for some but the game runs on cash purchases of gems. There is nothing in the cash shop that can give your character a distinct long term advantage in playing the game, mainly short term boosts, cosmetic skins, additional slots and a few convenience items. The price of items in terms of cash bought gems has not changed since the game’s launch or the item’s introduction (unless the item was modified).
China is on their own server cluster, their TP economy is not intermixed in ours.
The main problem is for those who steadfastly refuse to buy gems with cash is that the exchange rate is a positive feedback loop. The more gems bought with gold, the more gold you will need next time for the same amount of gems unless other players sell gems back to the exchange. As long as there is this imbalance, the rate will continue to rise and players who believe that bypassing spending cash to get the items they want at the cash shop will simply dig themselves further into a hole until there is no way for them to earn enough gold for the cash shop items they want.
You are a stubborn bunch. So my suggestion to you all is to, either buy a few gems each day every day and save them until something you want returns or goes on sale (called cost averaging). Or temper your desire for items at the store. Or crack open your wallets.